The Oscars – Who Will Win, Who Ought To Win and Those Who Were Simply Screwed – Part 1: Who WILL Win

Well, it's that time of the year when we obscure film bloggers pretentiously pretend not to give a damn about the Academy Awards. 

Who cares about the establishment, about the man? They're just too mainstream, aren't they? Well, I have to confess that I actually follow most award shows, and none as closely as the Oscars.

So here I am weighing in on the madness nevertheless.

First, a couple of disclaimers – One, I have not seen every film in the running. I've missed "A Star is Born," and "Vice." I have seen each of the other films up for Best Picture.

Second, I'm not going to weigh in on each and every category. That would just be effing exhausting. Just the few I have a strong opinion on.

So let's start out with which films will take home the trophies this year.

Best Picture – BlacKkKlansman

This year, it's trickier than usual to predict what movie will be proclaimed the greatest film of the year. By Hollywood terms, if you look at their history, it's a race between two. Alfonso Cuaron's "Roma" which is quite a beautiful, personal but grandeur look into the life of a young woman as her country struggles its way through The Mexican Institutional Civil War in the '70s.

The other film with as many nominations is Yorgos Lanthimos' "The Favourite," an unsettling and surprisingly wicked dark comedy.

But I think an unexpected left hook just might be the thing. That's where Spike Lee's visionary film "BlacKkKlansman" comes into play.  I think everybody will be shocked to see the top honor of the night go to "BlacKkKlansman." 

A buddy-cop movie in which a black detective pretends to be a white supremacist to take down David Duke may not sound like an Oscar movie on its face, but look at what's happening around us. White Supremacy and White Nationalism going unchecked, uncriticized. Even after white nationalists murdered a woman at a protest, the president himself said that the people there, the neo-nazis, white nationalists and the Klan were "very fine people." Spike Lee decimates these times with a jack-hammer and he'll be rewarded for it.

"Black Panther" is in the running, for sure. It's changed the way comic book films will be made from here on out. I'd be glad to see it win, it really was fantastic, but it's a long-shot.

Best Director – Spike Lee

But I really do believe this time that the Academy will have the grace to finally recognize this giant in the industry. This guy is one of the greatest directors of our generation and until now, he's not been up for Director or Picture. If there were any justice in the universe, he would already have matching ones for "Do the Right Thing" and "Malcolm X."

Best Cinematography – Alfonso Cuaron

I'd really like to believe that the Academy could get behind, simply the loveliest looking film of the year, "Cold War." Lukasz Zal forces us to stop to watch every image he puts in front of us. And each of them is almost hypnotic, from the most beautiful shots nature has to offer, to the truly ugliest filth. And Zal isn't afraid to show us these characters up close, from the plainest plebian right up to the most important and the glorious.

But there's no way "Roma" will go home completely empty-handed. Consider this one Cuaron's consolation prize.

Best Original Screenplay – Alfonso Cuaron

Like Best Cinematography, I think it's pretty safe to assume Cuaron will win for his powerful screenplay for "Roma." The Acadamy really like this guy and apart from that, he gave us quite the timeless masterpiece this year that will be relevant for quite some time.

Best Actress – Glenn Close

Glenn Close has always been a bridesmaid, never a bride. This will be her seventh Oscar nomination. Unfortunately, I haven't seen this film so I can't tell you whether or not I think she ought to win, but I expect that Close will take home Best Actress.  It's one of the few locks this year.

Best Actor – Rami Malek

Rami Malek will undoubtedly take home a statue for his turn as Freddy Mercury in Brian Singer's "Bohemian Rhapsody." Everybody likes to see an actor nail the essence of an historical figure. And Malek's performance is so true it seems implausible that he wouldn't walk home with the trophy. He channels Mercury so effectively, you'll get chills even if you're not a Queen fan.

Best Supporting Actress – Tie Between Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone

"And the Oscar goes to – The really malicious bitch from "The Favourite." Wait. Dammit. Do I mean Rachael Weisz or Emma Stone? How are we supposed to choose between the two? Coin toss! No? Let's just say it'll go to Weize just 'cause I love brunettes.  Weize's and Stone's performances in "The Favourite" rival each other into a one-upmanship of who can sell their soul for some nasty meat first. Their malevolence takes on its own form, creating one fascinating, cruel, power and sex-crazed creature.

Best Supporting Actor – Sam Elliot

I think they're going to finally recognize Sam Elliot this year, I really think they will. We've all loved this guy for so long, we all want to see him take home one Oscar while he's still young. Hell, he deserves a lifetime achievement award just for narrating "The Big Lebowski."

Coming up next – Who SHOULD win This Year's Honors

And here's a peek at the movie I keep raving about but you probably haven't seen – "Cold War."

Quote of the Day - Throw Mama From the Train - There's Always Time For Candy

Chat amongst ruthless killers:

Owen: "Where are you going?"
Larry: "I'm gonna kill the bitch. You want anything?"
Owen: "Could you get me a Chunky?"

On Body and Soul - Ildikó Enyedi (2017)

Tell me, how wonderful does it make you feel to watch an incredibly touching, romantic film? It can fill you up with an indescribable feeling you carry with you for hours, sometimes days. It's so intoxicating, you want to revisit it right away.

Where does that magic come from? Sure, you'll point to the screenplay, the directing, and the lovely performances. Some romances have a powerful charm and a gorgeous story running underneath everything that you really can't verbalize.

In these gems, we fall in love with the characters instantaneously. It's more powerful than what they call chemistry and it's something that you can't explain in words.

So when we are lost in a film like Abdellatif Kechiche's "Blue is the Warmest Color," Francois Truffaut's "Jules and Jim," Michel Gondry's "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," or Tony Scott's "True Romance," (my favorite love story), what gives us that spark that makes these films so elegant and timeless?

In Ildikó Enyedi's "On Body and Soul," a young woman, Mária (Alexandra Borbély) starts her new job as a meat-inspector at a slaughterhouse. On her first day, she meets the man in charge, Endre (Géza Morcsányi), an older man, very quiet, who keeps him to himself.

On the surface, they don't seem to form any kind of rapport. But they quickly learn the two of them share their dreams.

Literally. When they sleep at night, they wander into a single dream. It's a very simple dream. Endre is a stag who comes across a doe, Mária. There's not much to it, they spend some time playfully and affectionate at a riverbank surrounded by mountains of snow.

It takes them days to realize it, but when they do, they have no idea how to respond. They are not instantly captivated by the other.

The story slowly starts its work. You realize that these two are either going to have to truly earn their relationship, along with our affection, or you're watching a bad movie.

Then they keep raising the stakes on each other. It's very subtle, powerful storytelling going on as they slowly build to the place where Endre and Mária can't and won't live without the other.

So no, they don't share that glow right from the beginning. It takes a while to do it, but Mária and Endre work hard to win our affection and when we've finally fallen in love with them, we are caught off guard. Emotionally, we live and die in every breath they share, in every touch.

"On Body and Soul" takes no shortcuts. It doesn't take for granted that these two, even given the

connection in their dreams, will be able to sustain, or even start, a relationship. It's right at the top of the list with "Blue is the Warmest Color" as one of the great romances so far this century.

And that makes a film a classic. It's why this film will endure.

Quote of the Day - Support Your Local Sheriff - Stay on Your Side of the Line

I don't know how many of you have seen Burt Kennedy's Comedy/Western "Support Your Local Sheriff," but if you haven't, you've denied yourself a real treat. One of my Dad's favorite movies. I couldn't count how many times we watched it, but I pretty much have it memorized.

The film turns the Western genre on its head and kicks it in the face. The result is one film that still makes me cry with laughter every time I see it.

Sheriff: "Now Joe, the cell on the right is yours. We don't have any bars yet."
Joe Danby: "You're kidding."
Sheriff: "That's what I said! But we're gonna operate just as if the bars were there. You stay on that side of the line and everything should work out fine."

Quote of the Day - Barry Jenkins' Moonlight - True Honesty

When someone opens up and really wants to share themselves with you, it can go fast and deep and become something you never might have expected. In fact, it can be uncommonly lovely and delicate.

(And no, I'm not just talking about the handjob. Perverts.)

"I should have cried too much sometimes I feel like I'm just gonna turn into drops."

- Ashton Sanders as Black in "Moonlight."

Song of the Day - Everyone Says I Love You - A Pathetic Man Can Break Your Heart

By and large, musicals are wonderful, I've loved them since I was a child. They elicit every human emotion there is and Woody Allen's "Everyone Says I Love You" is no exception. Admittedly, the story doesn't add up to much, but each musical number is delightful.

Some are lovely because they're so filled with happiness. Others, because they are mournful.

Every time I watch this film, this particular song tears me up. I can't explain why I feel for this sad and pathetic man, but I do. Most likely because he seems so useless.

Suburbicon - George Clooney (2017)

You can easily laugh through some dark comedies. George Clooney's "Suburbicon," (based on a screenplay by the Coen Brothers, Clooney, and Grant Heslov) is a comedy in which, the fun and humor are juxtaposed with a backdrop of suffering that isn't funny at all.

Gardner Lodge (Matt Damon) is an ordinary man, as far as we can see, whose luck spirals downward to an alarming level of rot. Damon is the box office draw, but the Protagonist, the leading man if you will, is actually Nicky (Noah Jupe), Gardner's son.

Nicky is the single innocent in this story. He's the only character who's not an amoral wretch. At the start of the film, the kid is put through a traumatic experience. The sequence is excessively grim, the kind of content that even the darkest of most dark comedies wouldn't touch.

The boy is woken in the middle of the night and dragged down to the dining room. He is tied down by a couple of brutes. He sees his mother Rose, and aunt Margaret (both played by Julianne Moore) are tied down as well.

After a few minutes of intimidating threats, the brutes chloroform all of them.

When Nicky wakes up, he learns that his mother did not survive the attack. His father and aunt are fairly blasé about the incident.

Aunt Margaret moves in to help Nicky and Gardner get used to living without Rose. There may be something sinister behind that.

Rose's death starts a chain of unfortunate events that could very well toss the family right on its head. Nicky and Gardner are threatened throughout the film by nosey cops, gangsters and a corrupt insurance investigator looking to take the Lodges for everything they've got.

Watching Gardner and his sister-in-law Margaret's lives fall apart is hilarious. "Suburbicon" creates so many characters whose demise we gladly cheer for.

There is a secondary plot is focused on a black family, the Mayers, who move into the neighborhood. Nicky strikes up a friendship with Andy Mayer, the new black kid in town.

But the neighborhood doesn't just object to the family's arrival, it rages. As the Lodge family's safety is on the decline, the Mayers face a hostility from the town that simmers through the story and explodes at just the worst time.

It's wonderful how Clooney manages to slowly transform the normal people we were introduced to at the beginning into the sociopaths they really are. "Suburbicon" mirrors the place where the center of the morality of our country is right now, without sounding too self-righteous.

"Suburbicon" is about "Some very fine people," and how they devolve into monsters most wouldn't have recognized before.

The film is screamingly funny all the way through until the end, but it is decidedly disturbing at the same time. You've been warned.