The Oscars – Who Will Win, Who Ought To Win and Those Who Were Simply Screwed – Part 1: Who Were Left Out, Proving that Justice is Only an Abstract theoretical idea

We've already gone through which films will win and which ones ought to. So all the fanfare I can muscle from my PC, please enjoy – 

Which Films and Performances Were Criminally Overlooked 

Best Picture – Sorry to Bother You

Yes, this has been a great year for black movies and black filmmakers. We had "The Hate U Give," "Black Panther," and "BlacKkKlansman."
"The Hate U Give" gives us a visceral picture of what is happening right now on our streets, in this world, shown to us through the eyes of an innocent."
"Black Panther" came out and transformed the shallow messages in comic-book films to a legitimate tool for social change.

But one offering this year by Boots Riley, a first-time filmmaker was superior to the aforementioned films in every way. "Sorry to Bother You" is the film that shows us what America is becoming with wit, a scathing scream out to grab our attention and dares his audience to choose a side – those who ignore the way Americans are changing for the worse and those who can see our country's true face. 

Sebastian Lellio's "Disobedience"

Sebastian earned the attention of the world film community with 2017's "A Fantastic Woman." "Disobedience" builds on the themes he'd already established. The story of a rekindled love affair put away for years shines as a powerfully emotional drama where everything is at stake for each of those caught in this love triangle. Watch this film and I dare you not to cry. Go ahead, just try it.

Best Director – Anne Ramsay

Ramsey should've been recognized.for her taut, unsettling thriller "You Were Never Really Here," a frantic and disturbing film about the relationship justice has with violence. I want to proclaim Boots Riley the greatest filmmaker alive right now, but he needs to start a body of work and make sure he makes it clear to the wind that he's more than a true artist, he's also a force to be reckoned with. Ramsay has given us one masterpiece – "We Need to Talk About Kevin." With "You Were Never Really Here," she cements her place among great filmmakers.

Best Supporting Actor – Allesandro Nivola 

Allesandro Nivola shows us true heartbreak looks and feels like. Rabbi Dovid the tortured man when his wife's former lover, a woman from their past comes to town. He's forced to helplessly stand there, caught between lovers, his wife, and their childhood friend, in Sebastian Lellio's "Disobedience." The one thing we're sure of when watching the film is that no matter how this all shakes out, somebody's going to be left alone with a broken heart. 

So here's the trailer for "Disobedience," the film I've been raving about, the one that's not getting the love it deserves.

The Oscars – Who Will Win, Who Ought To Win and Those Who Were Simply Screwed – Part 2: Who Should Win

Okay, we've covered which films are the most likely to take home Oscar gold. But which movies are actually deserving? Who SHOULD win?

Best Picture – "BlacKkKlansman"

Spike Lee's "BlacKkKlansman" may not be a sweeping epic (have you ever wondered why film critics use the word "sweeping" so much? Meh. When in Rome) like "Roma," the frontrunner this year, but it's the only film, with bigger balls than both "Black Panther" and the dark sex comedy "The Favourite."

I would really like to see Spike Lee honored at last.

Best Director – Pawel Pawlikowski

This one is easy. My pick doesn't have a chance in hell, but he sure deserves it. The cards are stacked against him, but putting away showbusiness politics and other factors, if there were any justice in the universe, the Oscar would unquestioningly go to Pawel Pawlikowski for "Cold War," a gift from God to the world.

Best Cinematography – Lukasz Zal

If God would intervene here, this honor would go to Lukasz Zal's "Cold War. It's one of those few films in which you could disregard story and characters and just watch at beautiful images as they are shown. Every frame of this work of art is a masterpiece.

Best Supporting Actor – Adam Driver

"BlacKkKlansman" has so much going for it that it's hard to give one performance too much credit. But Driver brings something special to the table. He turns what could've been just a standard cop role into an introspective detective who is wonderful to watch as he brings just the right amount of machismo to the table.

Best Actress –  Olivia Colman

None of these actresses stand a chance against Glenn Close this year. I think pretty much everybody has accepted that.

However, if I had my druthers, Olivia Colman would win for her turn as Queen Anne in the hilarious and dark comedy, "The Favourite." The film is so damn clever and subversive. Colman shines as the object of two different women's obsession. She's lovers with them both and seems to delight in egging on their cruel rivalry. She's not above "I like it when she puts her tongue in me." 

Best Actor – Willem Dafoe

If you saw "Eternity's Gate" you may already agree with me that Willem Dafoe deserves the trophy for his wonderful portrayal of Vincent Van Gough. The Academy has honored him before with plenty of nominations, but no gold this year. He's made so much of contribution to cinema, building up a reputation for choosing films that nobody else could've made their own like "Antichrist," "eXistenZ," "Shadow of the Vampire" and of course, "The Last Temptation of Christ."

His depiction here of Van Gough is as lovely as it is dark. He reminds us of the profound beauty of an artist in the context of his life, his neurosis and his crippling (and ultimately fatal) depression. 

How a man who saw the world as oppressive and hostile and still find beauty everywhere, giving us the most gorgeous painting in world history, is unspeakably moving.

Tomorrow, we'll talk about the movies that got screwed out of any nominations whatsoever. I'll leave you will a bit of evidence as to why Adam Driver should win the prize for Best Supporting Actor.

The Oscars – Who Will Win, Who Ought To Win and Those Who Were Simply Screwed – Part 1: Who WILL Win

Well, it's that time of the year when we obscure film bloggers pretentiously pretend not to give a damn about the Academy Awards. 

Who cares about the establishment, about the man? They're just too mainstream, aren't they? Well, I have to confess that I actually follow most award shows, and none as closely as the Oscars.

So here I am weighing in on the madness nevertheless.

First, a couple of disclaimers – One, I have not seen every film in the running. I've missed "A Star is Born," and "Vice." I have seen each of the other films up for Best Picture.

Second, I'm not going to weigh in on each and every category. That would just be effing exhausting. Just the few I have a strong opinion on.

So let's start out with which films will take home the trophies this year.

Best Picture – BlacKkKlansman

This year, it's trickier than usual to predict what movie will be proclaimed the greatest film of the year. By Hollywood terms, if you look at their history, it's a race between two. Alfonso Cuaron's "Roma" which is quite a beautiful, personal but grandeur look into the life of a young woman as her country struggles its way through The Mexican Institutional Civil War in the '70s.

The other film with as many nominations is Yorgos Lanthimos' "The Favourite," an unsettling and surprisingly wicked dark comedy.

But I think an unexpected left hook just might be the thing. That's where Spike Lee's visionary film "BlacKkKlansman" comes into play.  I think everybody will be shocked to see the top honor of the night go to "BlacKkKlansman." 

A buddy-cop movie in which a black detective pretends to be a white supremacist to take down David Duke may not sound like an Oscar movie on its face, but look at what's happening around us. White Supremacy and White Nationalism going unchecked, uncriticized. Even after white nationalists murdered a woman at a protest, the president himself said that the people there, the neo-nazis, white nationalists and the Klan were "very fine people." Spike Lee decimates these times with a jack-hammer and he'll be rewarded for it.

"Black Panther" is in the running, for sure. It's changed the way comic book films will be made from here on out. I'd be glad to see it win, it really was fantastic, but it's a long-shot.

Best Director – Spike Lee

But I really do believe this time that the Academy will have the grace to finally recognize this giant in the industry. This guy is one of the greatest directors of our generation and until now, he's not been up for Director or Picture. If there were any justice in the universe, he would already have matching ones for "Do the Right Thing" and "Malcolm X."

Best Cinematography – Alfonso Cuaron

I'd really like to believe that the Academy could get behind, simply the loveliest looking film of the year, "Cold War." Lukasz Zal forces us to stop to watch every image he puts in front of us. And each of them is almost hypnotic, from the most beautiful shots nature has to offer, to the truly ugliest filth. And Zal isn't afraid to show us these characters up close, from the plainest plebian right up to the most important and the glorious.

But there's no way "Roma" will go home completely empty-handed. Consider this one Cuaron's consolation prize.

Best Original Screenplay – Alfonso Cuaron

Like Best Cinematography, I think it's pretty safe to assume Cuaron will win for his powerful screenplay for "Roma." The Acadamy really like this guy and apart from that, he gave us quite the timeless masterpiece this year that will be relevant for quite some time.

Best Actress – Glenn Close

Glenn Close has always been a bridesmaid, never a bride. This will be her seventh Oscar nomination. Unfortunately, I haven't seen this film so I can't tell you whether or not I think she ought to win, but I expect that Close will take home Best Actress.  It's one of the few locks this year.

Best Actor – Rami Malek

Rami Malek will undoubtedly take home a statue for his turn as Freddy Mercury in Brian Singer's "Bohemian Rhapsody." Everybody likes to see an actor nail the essence of an historical figure. And Malek's performance is so true it seems implausible that he wouldn't walk home with the trophy. He channels Mercury so effectively, you'll get chills even if you're not a Queen fan.

Best Supporting Actress – Tie Between Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone

"And the Oscar goes to – The really malicious bitch from "The Favourite." Wait. Dammit. Do I mean Rachael Weisz or Emma Stone? How are we supposed to choose between the two? Coin toss! No? Let's just say it'll go to Weize just 'cause I love brunettes.  Weize's and Stone's performances in "The Favourite" rival each other into a one-upmanship of who can sell their soul for some nasty meat first. Their malevolence takes on its own form, creating one fascinating, cruel, power and sex-crazed creature.

Best Supporting Actor – Sam Elliot

I think they're going to finally recognize Sam Elliot this year, I really think they will. We've all loved this guy for so long, we all want to see him take home one Oscar while he's still young. Hell, he deserves a lifetime achievement award just for narrating "The Big Lebowski."

Coming up next – Who SHOULD win This Year's Honors

And here's a peek at the movie I keep raving about but you probably haven't seen – "Cold War."