The Oscars – Who Will Win, Who Ought To Win and Those Who Were Simply Screwed – Part 1: Who WILL Win

Well, it's that time of the year when we obscure film bloggers pretentiously pretend not to give a damn about the Academy Awards. 

Who cares about the establishment, about the man? They're just too mainstream, aren't they? Well, I have to confess that I actually follow most award shows, and none as closely as the Oscars.

So here I am weighing in on the madness nevertheless.

First, a couple of disclaimers – One, I have not seen every film in the running. I've missed "A Star is Born," and "Vice." I have seen each of the other films up for Best Picture.

Second, I'm not going to weigh in on each and every category. That would just be effing exhausting. Just the few I have a strong opinion on.

So let's start out with which films will take home the trophies this year.

Best Picture – BlacKkKlansman

This year, it's trickier than usual to predict what movie will be proclaimed the greatest film of the year. By Hollywood terms, if you look at their history, it's a race between two. Alfonso Cuaron's "Roma" which is quite a beautiful, personal but grandeur look into the life of a young woman as her country struggles its way through The Mexican Institutional Civil War in the '70s.

The other film with as many nominations is Yorgos Lanthimos' "The Favourite," an unsettling and surprisingly wicked dark comedy.

But I think an unexpected left hook just might be the thing. That's where Spike Lee's visionary film "BlacKkKlansman" comes into play.  I think everybody will be shocked to see the top honor of the night go to "BlacKkKlansman." 

A buddy-cop movie in which a black detective pretends to be a white supremacist to take down David Duke may not sound like an Oscar movie on its face, but look at what's happening around us. White Supremacy and White Nationalism going unchecked, uncriticized. Even after white nationalists murdered a woman at a protest, the president himself said that the people there, the neo-nazis, white nationalists and the Klan were "very fine people." Spike Lee decimates these times with a jack-hammer and he'll be rewarded for it.

"Black Panther" is in the running, for sure. It's changed the way comic book films will be made from here on out. I'd be glad to see it win, it really was fantastic, but it's a long-shot.

Best Director – Spike Lee

But I really do believe this time that the Academy will have the grace to finally recognize this giant in the industry. This guy is one of the greatest directors of our generation and until now, he's not been up for Director or Picture. If there were any justice in the universe, he would already have matching ones for "Do the Right Thing" and "Malcolm X."

Best Cinematography – Alfonso Cuaron

I'd really like to believe that the Academy could get behind, simply the loveliest looking film of the year, "Cold War." Lukasz Zal forces us to stop to watch every image he puts in front of us. And each of them is almost hypnotic, from the most beautiful shots nature has to offer, to the truly ugliest filth. And Zal isn't afraid to show us these characters up close, from the plainest plebian right up to the most important and the glorious.

But there's no way "Roma" will go home completely empty-handed. Consider this one Cuaron's consolation prize.

Best Original Screenplay – Alfonso Cuaron

Like Best Cinematography, I think it's pretty safe to assume Cuaron will win for his powerful screenplay for "Roma." The Acadamy really like this guy and apart from that, he gave us quite the timeless masterpiece this year that will be relevant for quite some time.

Best Actress – Glenn Close

Glenn Close has always been a bridesmaid, never a bride. This will be her seventh Oscar nomination. Unfortunately, I haven't seen this film so I can't tell you whether or not I think she ought to win, but I expect that Close will take home Best Actress.  It's one of the few locks this year.

Best Actor – Rami Malek

Rami Malek will undoubtedly take home a statue for his turn as Freddy Mercury in Brian Singer's "Bohemian Rhapsody." Everybody likes to see an actor nail the essence of an historical figure. And Malek's performance is so true it seems implausible that he wouldn't walk home with the trophy. He channels Mercury so effectively, you'll get chills even if you're not a Queen fan.

Best Supporting Actress – Tie Between Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone

"And the Oscar goes to – The really malicious bitch from "The Favourite." Wait. Dammit. Do I mean Rachael Weisz or Emma Stone? How are we supposed to choose between the two? Coin toss! No? Let's just say it'll go to Weize just 'cause I love brunettes.  Weize's and Stone's performances in "The Favourite" rival each other into a one-upmanship of who can sell their soul for some nasty meat first. Their malevolence takes on its own form, creating one fascinating, cruel, power and sex-crazed creature.

Best Supporting Actor – Sam Elliot

I think they're going to finally recognize Sam Elliot this year, I really think they will. We've all loved this guy for so long, we all want to see him take home one Oscar while he's still young. Hell, he deserves a lifetime achievement award just for narrating "The Big Lebowski."

Coming up next – Who SHOULD win This Year's Honors

And here's a peek at the movie I keep raving about but you probably haven't seen – "Cold War."