The Academy Awards 2018: Who Should Win, Who Will Win and Who Got Snubbed

Okay, Ladies and Germs, it's that time of year again. The Oscars! (Which I've always maintained are meaningless, but hell, it's entertainment.)  

Who will win, Who should win and who got snubbed altogether:

Best Picture. Who will win: Guillermo del Toro's "The Shape of Water."

This film will come out on top, I think it's a safe bet. "The Shape of Water" has a broader cinematic scope than any other film in the running. The dark fairy tale takes us into another reality, captivating us. I don't begrudge their win because, after "Get Out," it's the second best picture out of the contenders.

Who should win: "Get Out."

If everything in the universe were perfect, all other films would bow down to Jordan Peele's "Get Out." I'm delighted that it nabbed four nominations. But we all know that the nominations are this film's reward. The Greatest film of 2017 could go home empty-handed, but there's hope. It is also in the running for Best Original Screenplay. It very well may take that home. That would be lovely.

Who has no business being on this list: "Dunkirk" and "Phantom Thread."

There's usually a token bad movie you can't stand getting a lot of attention and getting nominated for all sorts of awards. You've probably seen it. And I'm sure it'll walk away with a couple of statues. But My God wasn't Christopher Nolan's "Dunkirk" just one hell of a disappointment? Maybe that's just me. And everyone I know.

Paul Wes Anderson's "Phantom Thread" is much, much worse. I'd talk more about this film, but I don't want to.

But both Nolan and Anderson both have brilliant films under their belts. I'm sure they'll come back with wonderful films in the future.

Best Director. Who will win: Guillermo del Toro.

I think this is going to easily go to del Toro for the way he put together "The Shape of Water." There are so many visual and literary elements the film needed to juggle and he did so adroitly. He pulls the greatest performances out of his actors. He knows exactly what tone is most fitting throughout the movie. From start to finish, del Toro leads us through his world as the movie changes from a fantasy to a thriller, then down to a simple, intimate love story.

Who should the Oscar go to? See above.

Best Editing. Who will win: Lee Smith for "Dunkirk."

Smith will easily win this one. The film isn't going to win any of the big awards and this is its consolation prize. Funny how crap like that sways the fate of the winners and losers.

Who should win: Sydney Wolinsky for "The Shape of Water."

Wolinsky cut this film so beautifully. He finds the right rhythm for each sequence in the film, and that's a big part of why this film is such a triumph. Wolinsky cuts with grace, spirituality, and poetry. Damn, I wish he'd get the award.

Best Actor. Who will take home this award for Best Actor: Gary Oldman for his performance in Joe Wright's "Darkest Hour."

This one's easy. Oldman plays a famous historical person. He's in a fat-suit. Need I say more? But who the hell am I to raise a fuss when I think back over his body of work? Tomas Alfredson's "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy." His performance of the truly evil Stansfield in Luc Besson's "Leon." The tragic punk icon Sid Vicious in Alex Cox' "Sid and Nancy." Most of all, out and in front of all the others: Drexel, the aggressive pimp and drug dealer and Tony Scott's "True Romance." It's long overdue for Oldman and I'm happy for him.

Who should get it: Daniel Kuluuya for  his performance in "Get Out." 

A considerable part of why "Get Out" is so dark and curt is because of Daniel Kuluuya's performance. He plays Chris, the protagonist who's every kind of terrified and he shows different types of fear for the span of the film. From suspicion and wariness all the way to naked fear. Kuluuya knows exactly how to carry the weight of a psychological horror on his shoulders.

Best Actress.  Who will win: Sally Hawkins will and should win for her performance in Guillermo del Toro's "The Shape of Water."

This one's fantastic because, as with Best Director, Best Actress as Elisa Esposito in "The Shape of Water," will and should go to the same nominee. Her performance as Elisa, a woman who has never been treated with equality finding a kindred soul. There's not really much else to say about it. I wrote a bit about her performance when I evaluated "The Shape of Water."

Who Should Win: See Above.

Supporting Actor. Who Will Win: Willem Dafoe for "The Florida Project."

Some would consider this category to be wide open, but I disagree. I believe the Academy will give this one to Willem Dafoe for his work in Sean Baker's "The Florida Project." His performance is entertaining (Dafoe couldn't be boring if he tried), but it doesn't even come close to many of his most brilliant work, i.e. in Scorsese's "Last Temptation of Christ," Lars von Trier's "Antichrist" and "Nymphomaniac Volume II," and David Lynch's "Wild at Heart." This is more of a lifetime achievement award if you will. And I appreciate that. I even applaud that.

Who Should Win: Richard Jenkins for his bit in "The Shape of Water."

But if we're judging these two actors based solely on these specific, I'm afraid Dafoe takes a back seat to Richard Jenkins for his role as Giles in Guillermo del Toro's "The Shape of Water." His performance as half of Elisa's support group is so powerful. He is wise and noble and would die for Elisa, but he looks like a crumpled old man. One could easily take him for a hobo. But he carries himself beautifully and with dignity.

Supporting Actress. Who Will Win: Allison Janney for her role in "I, Tonya."


Oh, my is this one easy. Allison Janney gave the performance of her career as the vile, venom-spewing mother of Tonya Harding in Craig Gillespie's "I Tonya." So many other actresses would have taken the cruelty down a notch, maybe tried to add some humanity to the film. But Janney knows where to be subtle and where to be aggressive and Tonya's mother is an aggressive character. Janney plays her with malevolent elegance. She will win the Academy Award.

Who Should Win: See above.

Foreign Language Film. Who Will Win: "Sebastian Lelio's "A Fantastic Woman."

Full disclosure, I haven't seen two of these films, so take this opinion/prediction with a grain of salt. I believe The Academy will give this award to Sebastian Lelio's "A Fantastic Woman" out of Chile. It comes fresh off several Festivals and it's timely as hell. Not just that, it's a powerful and intimate film as well. It's a love story, a critique of bigotry and the way different kinds of people grieve. "A Fantastic Woman" should win the award as well.

Best Original Screenplay. Who Will Win: Jordan Peele.

My money's on Jordan Peele for his screenplay for "Get Out." It's more than a horror film (though it is terrifying), it's socially important. When it came out, it felt like a revolution. It puts so much shame on our current leaders, it could probably get this kind of recognition on that merit alone. Add to that the fact that it's been years since we've seen a horror film like this one and I think I can safely predict "Get Out" will win Original Screenplay.

Who Should Win: See above.

The Unjustly Ignored:

Sadly, some of the greatest performances of the year received no recognition, no love. Every year, somebody gets snubbed entirely.

Best Supporting Actress: Betty Gabriel for her performance as Georgina in "Get Out."

Betty Gabriel should have been recognized for her small but vital performance as Georgina, the family maid in "Get Out." She brings more urgency to the picture than anyone else. It's not just how she pops up out of nowhere, scaring the hell out of us, although that's pretty frightening. When you look into her face and listen to her, you can see both the poor young woman whose body was stolen and the thief herself. They're each fighting for control. When she apologizes to Chris, you can feel how tense she is. Grandma is trying to keep control of them at the same time as the other girl trapped inside is trying desperately to "Get Out." Her small, single tears are juxtaposed to the infamous ones we all know from Chris. She contributes more to the film than most people realize. It's so damn subtle and that's why nobody's recognized it.

Original and Adapted Screenplays overlooked: Oh my, there were so many.

Sofia Coppola's screenplay for "The Beguiled" ought to have definitely been recognized, as should have The Coen Brothers, George Clooney and Grant Heslov's screenplay for Clooney's "Suburbicon" and "The Death of Stalin" deserved some recognition. "Stalin" was the darkest comedy of 2017 and Fabien Nury's screenplay (with help from six other writers), is brilliant. 

Best Foreign Language Film: "Thelma."

I also have to mention Joachim Trier's "Thelma," a story about a young woman and her first romance against her family's fundamentalist leanings. The film came out of Norway in November 2017, here in the US. As good as "A Fantastic Woman" is, for better or worse, I have so much more affection for "Thelma." It should have been put up for "Best Foreign Language Film."

Best Original Song: "Distraction Sickness" from "A Ghost Story."

The best original song of 2017 was "Distraction Sickness" by Dark Rooms in David Lowery's "A Ghost Story." But it was ignored completely. It's small but vital to the film's tone. On its own, it's just a brilliant song.

Original Score: Daniel Hars for "A Ghost Story."

For that matter, Daniel Hart's score for "A Ghost Story" is one like no other in any of the great movies released in 2017. It's filled with melancholy and darkness and it's gorgeous.

Best Supporting Actor: Jonathan Banks in his turn in Dee Rees' "Mudbound."

This is the single most unforgivable slight of 2017. Banks plays Pappy McDaniel, a murderous man determined to put as many black people as he can back in their place. Black people are slowly starting to get some status and that infuriates him. Since he can't keep the whole world the way it is, he takes out his white-hot hatred on anybody he can find around him who's vulnerable. He's terrifying. Banks gives the single best performance of 2017, so tell all your friends.

Get Out by Jordan Peele - 2017

Comic Jordan Peele seems to have been hiding his talent for writing and directing with intensity and true horror while retaining a good deal of his smart-ass humor.

Aside from working solely as a work of entertainment, "Get Out" is arguably one of the most political horror films since George Romero's original "Dead" trilogy.

The first scene opens very like many others. In your slasher film, you'll find the first victim about to walk down a dank alley or open the door to a dilapidated, 'haunted' house' or down a dark hallway of an abandoned insane asylum all the teenage kids have decided to spend the night in.

Only this first victim is a black guy walking down a seemingly safe, residential, suburban street.  And before the audience can yell, "Hey don't go down there!" it's too late.

"Get Out" is the story of Chris, the black boyfriend and Rose, the white girlfriend who is taking her man to go meet her parents. Chris is nervous about how her family is going to react to him as their daughter's beau, considering he's black.

At first, Rose's family seems harmless enough, if condescending. Rose's dad even takes Chris aside to tell him how much he wanted to vote for Obama for a third term.  

Then small things pop up that just don't seem right and start to unsettle Chris.

When he's finally put in 'the sunken place,' he knows that something is rotten in Denmark and things go south from there. 

That's all I'm going to say about the plot.  I don't want to spoil anyone.  But the story is only part of the reason this film is so exceptional.

The film is really about the separation of races, not just geographically, but in points of view and how different races see America.

This is important at a time when our government is actively doing everything they can to separate us even further. This is a time when the HUD Secretary has said that the slaves who came to America in the bottom of slave ships were excited about opportunities in the new world, just like all immigrants.

But the film speaks to more than the politics of the day. Peele's running theme is that things between the races haven't been acceptable for a long damn time. It's not okay that people only claim they're not racist because they feel like they'll be shamed if their real beliefs surface. That's simply not good enough.

The truth is that white America has the notion that we fixed what was broken back during the civil rights era. And that just isn't so. Laws were changed and rights were grudgingly handed out, but that didn't really change the hearts of white America.

Now, I'm half German, a quarter Swedish and a quarter Norwegian, so I could not be any whiter. 

And I've been the only white face plenty of times at clubs, shows, movies and even a Black Literature class in college. And my family has lived in a neighborhood where we were the only white folk for a mile radius. So you'd think I'd be able to relate to what it feels like to be a minority, right? I mean, these experiences should tell me vividly how black people feel in a white environment, yes?  

Wrong. 

White America, I'm talking to you now. We have no idea what it's like to really be a minority, especially a historically despised people like the Black Community.

There is no way we can fathom how that feels. We have no idea what it would be like to walk a mile in their shoes and nothing can change that. We'll never see the world through the eyes of a black man.

I've believed this for a long time, but after seeing "Get Out," I don't just believe it. I see it as an absolute, irrefutable truth. I'm adding it to the filter that is my worldview.

It's amazing how much Peele accomplishes with this film. He's telling us that rights and laws are fantastic, but until perception is changed, across the board, we're not assimilated yet.

And as a bonus, his warning comes in the form of one of the best crafted horror films in years. Peele is an artist who works on many levels and I am actually holding my breath to see what he does next.